On cue, out of the woodwork they come! A current macro strategist + former hedge fund maven. They’ve both been dead wrong for 3 years but point or wag a forewarning finger at a Fed that’s been remarkably right. For what? Strong employment, low inflation, low rates. Wow!
The stock & bond markets have been in an understated but discernible flight to safety - eg to Mag 7 vs. Equal weight S&P. The search for safety appears triggered both by foreign and domestic dangers and so it will be interesting to watch when one or both lift.
“Learn to think continentally.” Alexander Hamilton (1757-1804). Some see the big picture, others don’t.
Catalyst for what? How most market participants, belonging to the impatient trading tribe, view geopolitical risk. Eg: Iran, Israel? Catalyst for higher oil prices. By contrast, Ukraine/Russia, about serious structural & humanitarian risk, catalyzes little for them So they pass.
“No one ever went broke from taking a profit,” Bernard Baruch is famously quoted for saying. Notice he emphasizes “going broke”. I say: “No one ever got rich capping their profits.” Notice I emphasize: “getting rich”.
Buy low, sell high? No. Not if you’re a good investor. Not if you’re even an average investor in a good investment. The S&P 500 was up over 6,600% from 1974 to the recent past. What good would buying low, sell high have done you? Even more so if you could do better than the S&P!
Why has the whole US + 48 of its 50 states grown faster from 2019 to 2024 than the other G7 countries? The one difference was the speed and size of US government policy & incentives to get out of COVID and build out infrastructure & manufacturing. x.com/josephpolita...
When democracy is put on the shelf by an autocrat, the first thing that goes are options. Options for the country go: it’s stuck with the autocrat. For individuals, organizations & companies options also go. They’re stuck. And when bad things happen, everyone’s stuck with those.
Unsaid is this obvious reality: if you’re President of the United States operating in the midst of an election this consequential 40 days away, you will shy, for that time, from bold moves in foreign affairs to preclude unleashing a potential chain of unintended consequences.
AI is the Golden Retriever that needs a lot of training… And good data to work from. I have been disappointed at the shoddy answers AI has retrieved which I might have completely trusted had I not had the expertise to know otherwise. Onward with training!