Error from privacy protection is relatively small compared to other sources of survey error and can impact inequality statistics in unexpected ways, from Evan S. Totty and Thor Watson https://www.nber.org/papers/w32989

Proposing a VAR-Plus approach to construct policy counterfactuals without taking a stand on the shocks driving the cycle and applying it to US monetary policy, from Tomás E. Caravello, Alisdair McKay, and Christian K. Wolf https://www.nber.org/papers/w32988

The decision of Theodore Roosevelt and other Progressives to run as third-party candidates in 1912 increased the likelihood of and helped shape US central banking legislation, from Matthew S. Jaremski and David C. Wheelock https://www.nber.org/papers/w32987

Using data for Euro Area investors to examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies in the form of capital flow reversals, from Ester Faia, Karen K. Lewis, and Haonan Zhou https://www.nber.org/papers/w32986

Decades of evidence from around the world shows limited adaptation to a changing climate to date, from Burke, Zahid, Martins, Callahan, Lee, Avirmed, Heft-Neal, Kiang, Hsiang, and Lobell https://www.nber.org/papers/w32985

The social value of investing in vaccine research, development, and manufacturing capacity for pandemic preparedness and response, from Rachel Glennerster, Catherine Che, Sarrin M. Chethik, Claire T. McMahon, and Christopher M. Snyder https://www.nber.org/papers/w32984

Generalized monotonicity conditions in instrumental variable models give no additional identifying power beyond instrument exogeneity for average potential outcomes and treatment effects in multi-valued settings, from Bai, Huang, Moon, Shaikh, and Vytlacil https://www.nber.org/papers/w32983

Natural language processing of Chinese historical data dramatically cuts down the costs of using primary data compared to manual approaches, from Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue, and Sen Yan https://www.nber.org/papers/w32982

Summarizing the economics of recycling municipal solid waste, from Don Fullerton and Thomas C. Kinnaman https://www.nber.org/papers/w32981

From undermining labor markets and education to exacerbating inequality, a new study examines the economic challenges that Artificial General Intelligence may pose in coming years, from Anton Korinek https://www.nber.org/papers/w32980