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Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
368 followers568 following187 posts
Reposted by Paul Bivand
APanthonypainter.bsky.social

Yes, all of this emphasises how broad based the challenge is. Which is why it concerns me when just one portion of the need gets elevated. It's often a prelude to distributing resources within the system rather than the bigger challenge- expanding the system esp employer investment.

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

Don't know if the vacancy data (ONS textkernel) includes those only advertised overseas. The Adzuna ones for health and care anomalous ly low compared to education, basic level both cases. I see that series as UK advertised new vacancies.

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

From Medway... That doesn't always end well. Like towing away the royal navy.

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

They're also just one year, when the lagged pay response to cost of living crisis kicked in variously by group, so pay that year not totally representative of longer term signals. People make career choices on lifetime, maybe hyperbolically discounted.

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

Not really, when I last looked there were several skilled trades in that quadrant. As well as others listed as critical. But Ashe data doesn't include self employed where higher net income trades, drivers are.

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

Demand stresses arising from decade long drops in relative pay and employment sending market signals to avoid need careful treatment. People sometimes respond rationally to market signals.

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Reposted by Paul Bivand
APanthonypainter.bsky.social

(as it happens, in terms of numbers construction is way down the list- perhaps aided by migration. Yet, when we talk skills so often we flip into talk of the trades. Construction demand will increase in the next few years. But it really is a fairly small part of the story. Now to call a plumber...)

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

Yes

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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

The release also shows potential redundancies notified to the Insolvency Service (when Jobcentres did more employment support, the notification was to JCP). Percentage changes since 2019 on the right. The pandemic peak was when government tried to reopen the economy in June 2020.

Two line charts above each other showing potential redundancies. Top line is employers proposing redundancies (latest 52, up 30% from 40 in 2019). Lower line numbers of proposed redundancies (latest 3186, up 4.9% from 3037 in 2019). Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/26september2024.
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PBpaulbivand.bsky.social

Road pricing varying by congestion, maybe, so varying by time as well as place. I'd include a factor (multiplicative) for the pothole-creating effect - the 4th power of the weight. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_...

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PB
Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
368 followers568 following187 posts