The Alayande & Coyle basically ends up arguing that the decline in aggregate investment share of GDP is primarily about the decline in equipment & machinery. the UK is also the *most* deindustrialised of the large rich economies in terms of manufacturing value added. the natural conclusion?
but still, shouldn't we check disaggregated investment data, over time, to see whether shortfalls in infrastructure, energy, and housing are plausibly connected to the falling investment rates?
I will weaponise this great insight ;-)
Liberals speak as if Attlee made the decisive difference but 1945-79 is part of a much longer trend in British economic history. IMO it's time to revive Edwardian decline ;-) Cliometricians spent much time arguing British firms were rational in the face of British conditions, which missed the point.
OTOH the UK has been generating similar GDP growth with a falling investment rate & thus implying K productivity has been rising. and the I rate has been falling for a long time, so maybe recent policy mistakes are secondary, and what's needed are in fact deep supply-side changes to raise the I rate
I should have been clearer about this part. In the Crafts view, trade unions do get part of the blame. But NOTE Crafts argued trade union militancy interacted with private sector issues (weak competition & governance) and government policy errors. Unions, all by themselves, were not the issue.
all very plausible but I cannot help but think there are secondary issues when it comes to the performance of the aggregate economy. the UK has been so fucked in terms of macroeconomic management since 2007 that that should take centre-stage when it comes to aggregate underinvestment.
When I talk about relatively distant economic history, I tend to be attacked/criticised/trolled from the left. When I talk about relatively recent economic history, I tend to be attacked/criticised/trolled from the right Admittedly all this could be reflecting the parties I am subtexting/trolling😅
well I was not even going to comment on the issues of post-2007 stagnation but that entire lot give off the "I'm young, I'm upwardly mobile, but I want cheaper housing, which maybe I could get by arguing it's all linked to the national productivity stagnation loud enough" vibes.