Great piece this. Features a chart that both came as a complete shock but then you’re like “oh, yeah, not a head-scratcher” when you think about it.

ADadamdrummond.bsky.socialSep 29, 2024 4:37pm

James Crouch's take on the leadership candidates as Tory conference kicks off:

Conservative Conference 2024: The uphill battle to unite Tory voters

James Crouch analyses the party's perceived disunity and how well placed the leadership contenders are to respond to it

Speaking after Luke Tryl presented attitudes evidence, and other panelists had made points for staying (Buckland) or threatening to leave to seek reform (Clarke Smith), some of my points were 1. Conservatives are undecided/sceptical about ECHR - but defenders of ECHR need Conservatives

The media matter but they are one influence among many (and a weakening influence). They don’t win or lose elections but they can, for example, magnify or reinforce doubts voters already have.

That's another problem, of course. I don't think they can realistically squeeze more than half at most, and doing so is not cost free - Reform are toxic to many otherwise Tory friendly moderates (esp in home counties type seats)

Might do a substack post on this if I can find some time. I think the notion that Cons can win back most seats lost to LDs just by squeezing reform is widespread but doesn't stack up (tbh I thought the baseline number they could get would be higher myself)

Have just done a quick bit of number crunching on the results, and I think there are at most 10-12 LD seats which the Cons would have any chance of winning back on Reform squeeze alone. And even in that dozen, you have several with v deep LD roots (Eastleigh, Norfolk North) or v rapid rises in grads

Limited

The natural Reform electorate in such seats is shrinking fast, and the anti-reform electorate in such seats is growing fast. Even if new LD incumbents don't build substantial personal votes (and history suggests they will), just squeezing Reform won't be enough in most of them come 2029.

As a snapshot point that's accurate. But seats aren't static. I did a piece of work last year identifying the seats in England where the graduate share was rising fastest - these were nearly all Con-LD or LD-Con seats. They are now nearly all LD-Con seats.

The fact none of them have had anything to say about the economy, or for example criticised Liz Truss for putting out videos claiming the mini-budget was actually a great idea wrecked by those meddling kids at the BofE, is very revealing of where they're at right now & the mountain still to climb.