Yes that quote was bizarre. Either it was just stupid, or you could read it as part of a longer right wing Zionist tradition of glorifying an "honourable death" as the ultimate aim
In my view, that sense of existential vulnerability is more dangerous to Israel's future than whatever military threats it faces (and they are real). The danger to Israel's future lies within, not without. 3/3
It's about the intergenerational memory of Jewish trauma, expulsions and genocide. But it's also the Israeli sense of being settlers in a hostile and barbaric region - Ehud Barak's "Villa in the Jungle" - that is always about to rise against them, and no amount of missiles can keep them safe. 2/
Nothing Nasrallah ever did enraged Israelis as much as him saying that Israel is "weaker than spiderweb". It triggered Jewish-Israeli sense of existential vulnerability that is always there, dormant or visible. 1/
Some extemporaneous thoughts on the potential impact of Nasrallah's death. In the long-term 5-10 year timeframe, it will likely have little decisive impact. In the mid-term 5-10 month period, it's significant, but Hezbollah is a highly entrenched and resilient institution. 🧵
Yes. But to use its mid and long range arsenal effectively Hizbullah need functioning control, command and communications. And I don't know if they have that now. Launching short range rockets is much simpler and very difficult to prevent.
As for the long term, Hizbullah is a highly organised militia of 100,000 men and a mass social base. It can and will recover. Its future has to do more with internal Lebanese dynamics. beirutcalling.substack.com/p/hezbollahs...
Mounting domestic resentment toward the party in recent years is why the war with Israel may potentially pose a threat to its power.
We'll see in the next few days if Hizbullah is able and willing to use its strategic capabilities to turn Israeli cities to rubble. In any case, sporadic rocket fire to the north of Israel will continue. Israeli residents are not going back anytime soon.
What is different this time is that Israel was able to eliminate almost the entire leadership of Hizbullah, as well as many mid-level commanders. Certainly in the short term it would have a debilitating effect on the organisation. Its arsenal is still huge, the question is if it can use it. 4/
But even those are doubtful. the Islamic Jihad recovered from Shiqaqi's death. And Khalil al-Wazir, almost without doubt, would have played a stabalising role in the Oslo process. In both cases, and all others, revenge is a key, perhaps the primary Israeli motivation. 3/