I am somewhat impatient with people who continue to insist on this. I understand why it feels like an intuitive response to Truss beating Sunak in 2022 (from people who would be puzzled by IDS beating Ken Clarke, Boris beating Hunt). They should see Badenoch beating Tugendhat as consistent with that
I'd be okay with Cleverly, at least he's a moderate (of sorts). I was hoping for Tugendhat, but given Tugendhat is a bit too one sided on Middle East events.
The most popular transfer combination is Tugendhat to Cleverly (48%) and Jenrick to Badenoch (47%) because politics is dominant. While Jenrick/Tugendhat 5%. This means that 57% have a minority first preference (3/10 the other two) while > 7/10 a first/second preference for a nonwhite candidate
The least popular first/second preference combination is Jenrick/Tugendhat (5%) ahead of Badenoch/Tugendhat (8%) and Tugendhat/Jenrick (17%). We would expect that if politics dominates (but obviously the opposite should happen if candidate characteristics are central to voting choices)
Utterly daft to think saying "Tugendhat" or "Jenrick"does that This absurd claim needs an explanation of why the scores shift when candidates change (eg why is Jenrick higher than Tugendhat v Badenoch) Obvs most are giving actual preferences re candidates, not false preferences to hide real ones!
Arguments can be made about the most strident voices, eg Braverman. If you start extending this to Sunak and Cleverly then I think its very hard to make it a coherent argument that doesn't make additional objections to minority Conservatives than those put to May, Hunt, Tugendhat, Johnson etc
Most Conservative members prefer Badenoch to Tugendhat/Stride is entirely obvious. (Rightwing politics esp anti-woke stridency is obvs more important than the skin colour of a copartisan) They are just saying that in a survey to not look prejudiced is literally a crackerjack view. Why would they?
Cleverly is 12 behind Jenrick and 7 behind Badenoch but clear route to make +19 gains needs to be sure of ballot. (37 Stride/Tugendhat voters) Badenoch trails Jenrick 28-33. Must persuade MPs on right that she is stronger with members. But is "stop Cleverly" a key motive?
Tom Tugendhat is very unlikely to have a route to the ballot now. Needs to eliminate Cleverly with the Mel Stride 16 Mel Stride may make his own choice public on Monday/Tuesday.
My big takeaway here is how Tugendhat has debased himself totally for an electorate that would never choose him. What a pitiful performance it has been.
