😂

Exciting job opportunity in the area of seasonal forecasting at ECMWF in Bonn (Germany). jobs.ecmwf.int/Home/Job

Oxford station tonight: a boy, ca 13-14 yrs old, in school uniform, plays by heart the entire 3rd movement of Beethoven’s Pathetique sonata on the public piano in the station hall 🎹 - made my day.

Cyclone Boris is affecting the weather of Eastern Europe for the next few days, bringing exceptional rainfall to Austria, Czech Republic and the neighboring countries. 🌧☔️🌫❄️ A thread with some meteorological aspects of this storm I found fascinating:

the frequency of Vb cyclones might go down in the future due to the expected northward shift of the cyclone tracks over Europe. Contrary to expectations, the downscaling didn’t find any increase in precipitation in general. But land -sea contrasts are discussed.

In case this is of interest, these papers by Messmer et al. (2015,2020) discuss the Vb cyclones in detail, also for future scenarios. doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-… doi.org/10.1080/160008  🙏 to Jacobo Riboldi for pointing them out. They conclude that ..

and is known to bring dangerous amounts of precipitation, as we see. How well did weather forecasts do? Extreme rainfall in the affected regions has been in ECMWF’s forecasts since ~8 days ago.

Climate question: How well can climate models simulate the so-called Vb Grosswetterlage? Are there any studies available? Vb is underlying the dynamics of the current extreme weather situation in Central Europe. It originates over the very warm Mediterranean Sea (Genoa Low) …