In a sense the worst thing Starmer ever did to the Conservative Party was to give it hope this early in the electoral cycle
This is the third party conference I have attended in which the hosting party has just been kicked out of office: the other two being Labour 2010, Liberal Democrats 2015. They've all had a similar vibe, and maybe this one will have the same ending:
Leadership frontrunners appear to prescribe moving the party closer to its activist base, but this approach rarely pays off
Robert Jenrick's charisma-free JD Vance impersonation is not going to get voters who admire Nigel Farage to return to a post-Tory Conservative Party
One of the more interesting bits of research would be to line up the heartlands of the post-WW1 Heimwehren with current regions of highest support for the FPĂ
"Conservatives won't succeed until we get rid of the Office for Budget Responsibility," says Liz Truss
Conservative fringe meeting on immigration discussing how to persuade women to "breed for Britain" in order to "grow more" social care workers, one day after Kemi Badenoch's comments about "excessive" maternity pay.
I can see Ukraine entering into full Single Market integration. I'd say that's even a likely scenario. Full membership with MEPs and a seat on EUCO is another matter
You already have fraught negotiation and engagement processes right now surrounding the extent of Ukraine's integration in the Single Market that involve opposition stoked by various Far Right groups over agriculture and migration. That would extend into postwar planning and debate
While I don't think strengthening of Far Right parties in some EU states will act as a barrier for security aid to Ukraine now, I tend to worry more about how their impact might affect reconstruction aid and negotiations for Ukraine's integration into the EU in a postwar context
I found how this aspect of why Sunak might have lost to Truss was played down at the time rather baffling