I am still in the "a LD friendly by-election will change the polls a bit" camp but that isn't something we can foresee

Yeah, my two biggest entries on the Tory party risk register, as it were, are a) something happens triggering another Liberal Democrat facing by-election and b) a university collapses this side of the general election.

I think we're all done for by-elections now.

I think there are various black swan events which could change things - but from what is broadly foreseeable I don't expect the polling to change. We may see some continued deterioration in the Tory underlying scores but aside from that... nope