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Ballot Box Scotland
@ballotboxscot.bsky.social
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Donate; liberapay.com/ballotboxscot
1.3k followers1 following431 posts
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*100TH LOCAL BY-ELECTION PREVIEWED SINCE BBS LAUNCHED!* Fraserburgh and District only happening because Douglas Ross bungled the Westminster seat, as it's the SNP MP vacating. They can console themselves with a near-certain win here instead. Call: Likely Conservative.

First preferences in the ward at the 2022 election. In percentage terms, Conservative 32.4, Independent Mair 32.1, SNP 20.0, Alba 5.8, Lib Dem 4.8, Independent Greenall 3.9, Family 0.9
Transfers for the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. At final stage in percentage terms, Conservative 49.7, SNP 32.0, Didn't Transfer 18.3
Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by 2022 winner. Conservatives led in rural districts including Inverallochy, Rathen and Memsie. Independent Mair led in Fraserburgh districts.
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Similarly no Labour, Green or Alba in Fraserburgh and District. I got a row from some for not being all-knowing and saying a ward that *wasn't* this one was Alba's best shot at a councillor in 2022, and yet no candidate here now either, in their best area at Holyrood in 2021.

Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Lib Dem Sandy Leslie, SNP Mike McDonald, Reform UK Conrad Ritchie, Family Dawn Smith, Conservative Iain Sutherland. Vacating is SNP, 2022 winner is Conservative, runner-up SNP, margin of 17.7%. Prediction is Likely Conservative.
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ATandrewteale.bsky.social

Congratulations on your century!

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Ballot Box Scotland
@ballotboxscot.bsky.social
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Donate; liberapay.com/ballotboxscot
1.3k followers1 following431 posts
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