Do you remember Libra?

for the second question, we want replication so we can engineer. we want things that "work" so we can do stuff. and hence replication is only important if you want to do something with your science. you know, like care for sick people or build rockets...

for the first question, it's really worth examining recent history. in the social sciences, the recent replication crisis is the reckoning with the delusion that social science should model itself after natural science.

I love these questions! And they can't be answered in 300 characters. But...

My slightly hotter take is that replication crises are good because we learn from what fails to replicate.

yes, my issue is about what they are supposed to add to our civic understanding. I at least understand the arguments behind why campaigns have pollsters (whether they are worth listening to or paying is a separate question).

Thanks! Looking forward to reading.

Yes, and a campaign's "internal" polls have a different stated use value from media-centric polling. The former, as you say, is followed by action. The latter seems to just be for infotainment at best and voter persuasion at worst.

Ack, I really want to read this Annual Reviews article, but cloudflare is stuck in an infinite loop verifying I'm a human. Adding fuel to the fire of my burning pessimism about our information ecosystem...

I had a million interactions on twitter yesterday that have convinced me that no one understands statistical predictions either! And I hope we can all agree now that there is no such thing as statistical falsification.