I get very excited about the economic theory of this. This paper with Matt Elliott and Matt Leduc is all about the complexity trap -- how large supply networks freeze up (creating a big aggregate supply constraint) when you make many links less reliable. bengolub.net/wp-content/u...

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That's arguably a good way to think about what will happen with the shipping strike -- many shipments will get around it, but it'll throw a little sand in the wheels everywhere, and the aggregate consequences can be BIG. 11/