My first post. My op-ed published in the NYT today. I lay out the reasons why a PRC attack on Taiwan is unlikely in the near term and what needs to be done to preserve the peace in the years ahead. Constructive critiques welcome. www.nytimes.com/2023/10/29/o...

Excellent, Bonnie. Top of the reading list.

IMHO, China will first carry out a border war with India to demonstrate its superiority and get Indian neutrality by agreement or de facto. Then, with the only Quad land army out of the equation, it may turn to Taiwan. Humbling India will assert hegemony over South/east Asia at lower cost and risk.

I'm hoping some of the Navy leadership and navalists will read this and take it to heart.

Excellent piece—thank you!

Do you think that Xi is more of a rational actor than Putin?

Unfortunately, similar considerations were not enough to deter Putin from launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Which has devolved into something like what you describe as Xi's worst-case scenario for Taiwan -- but the ideology that drove Putin "irrationally" in is keeping him in.)