Legal US prediction markets are finally here from Kalshi after a major legal victory kalshi.com/events/polit...
Iâve probably been paying more attention to this case because itâs where my parents live, but this sentence couldnât have come at a better time and I hope every election official is paying attention. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2024/10/03/u...
I bit the bullet a few years ago and bought a Synology NAS. Works well. Caveat: this is with a Mac (I gave up on desktop Linux about a decade ago), but they have decent documentation for Linux backup via rsync.
Yeah, especially since a lot of homes in the Bay Area donât have air conditioning.
New in Scientific American w Jenny Allen: Is misinformation *really* a problem? Our take= Exposure to "fake news" is rare, but misinformedness is common- b/c of misleading claims from elites & mainstream news. Solutions must take this into account! www.scientificamerican.com/article/comb...
âFake newsâ-style misinformation is only a fraction of what deceives voters. Fighting misinformation will require holding political elites and mainstream media accountable
Nice thread. Is there any research on whether any of these indicators (fundraising, ground game etc.) predict polling errors?
Youâre probably familiar with everything he discusses, but itâs a nice history/synthesis of early results on things like hyperbolic discounting.
Itâs been awhile, but I remember really enjoying the first few chapters of Thalerâs book Misbehaving.
Yeah, like I said, Iâm sure it varies across departments. One thing Iâd be curious about is how good search committees are at actually predicting this. Probably impossible to know given that we never see what happens to the people we donât make offers to, but my confidence would be low here.