Tesla is the first carmaker in the world to not give volume guidance despite there being no pandemic or lineworker strikes. Here are 7 significant points about Q4 results and 4 points about their earnings call. Full report here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...
Tesla's brand image is collapsing in the US this winter due to battery degradation. It's their most profitable market, so this could be bad news for $TSLA in 2024. video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...
A bad start to 2024 for $TSLA: -Model 3 refresh dissed by Chinese (6% px cut needed) -Expect more price cuts in Europe & the US -Hertz dumps ~20K Teslas at below-market prices Lower used prices will haunt $TSLA from here. Expect write-downs this year. Short report here 👉 tinyurl.com/3ncyfvyz
Internal Tesla files were leaked to the press in May 2023. And yesterday (Dec-31st), 3.8% of the files were leaked on Twitter. Here's my take on reviewing the first 15% of the files. open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...
Tesla is the biggest short in 2024. Upside limited as Tesla's valuations are above tech stocks in the "Magnificent 7", despite TSLA being a carmaker with higher capex needs (lowest FCF yield). Legal liabilities also come to a head in 2024. Report here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...
Deep dive into why EVs are seeing lower profitability each quarter. Hybrids are taking away BEV share globally bc they're more affordable. This won't change soon. Tesla, VW, GM, Ford & Benz have the biggest exposure (i.e. risk). Deep dive here tinyurl.com/57fxwh69
Diary of a Tesla Short Seller (Sept 15, 2023). This week saw one of the biggest pumps of $TSLA by Morgan Stanley, which now sees the EV maker worth $1.3 trillion (4 Toyotas). Stock is up 11% on this hype while fundamentals further deteriorate. Update here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...
$TSLA is +2.6% this week & the best among the Magnificent 7, despite: 1) Musk's Twitter attack on the ADL 2) News of Musk aiding Russian invasion of Ukraine 3) News of Giga Mexico delay till 2027 4) Low weekly China sales And more. Details here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...
If only someone had sounded the alarm. [Looks at @lorak.bsky.social@niedermeyer.iowww.plainsite.org/realitycheck... to make sure it's not a hallucination...]
