Yes, you're right. The first paper to correlate the CO2 increase to temperature rise (a good thing for Scandinavia, according him) was "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground", by Svante Arrhenius, in Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science (1896).

and Francis Molena wrote in Popular Mechanics, in 1912, "Remarkable Weather of 1911", about the "effect of the combustion of coal on the climate". According the text, we would experience the effects, considering those emission rates, in about 200 years. 🧪