Great stats papers are far and few between, this is one of them. Super elegant piece of communication about the fundamental everyday concept of interpreting variance + uncertainty. Strong recommend. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

An illusion of predictability in scientific results: Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability | PNAS

Traditionally, scientists have placed more emphasis on communicating inferential uncertainty (i.e., the precision of statistical estimates) compare...