Wow that’s striking! Is the HHI reflecting firm level concentration of sales?
This also points to what's missing. The OBR should've highlighted that tomorrow's fiscal pressures can be reduced, by more targeted spending today. For instance via (1) a public health investment scenario and (2) an infrastructure investment scenario. (5/5)
But none of this means we have hit an unsustainable debt level. More meaningful fiscal metrics, such as the debt servicing ratio (as % of tax), are way below those in the US and Japan. The gov't should use this fiscal space to invest in health and climate, boosting growth. (4/5)
That said, there are still many fiscal pressures - like an ageing population (with rising pension bill and adult social care adding almost 2 per cent of GDP pressure by 2053) - that can't be avoided. So we need a conversation about how to fund the welfare state better. (3/5)
The report highlights some well known financial pressures on the current government from ageing, poor health and the need for climate investment. But it also notes that fixing these societal problems can hugely boost fiscal sustainability: (2/5)
The OBR's fiscal risks report is out today. But unlike what some suggest, it implies that we do have significant fiscal space (if used wisely). The baseline scenario sees net debt rise to 130 per cent of GDP at the middle of century - that's lower than Japan and Italy today! 1/5
With AI tools' writing and voice outputs now being basically indistinguishable from that of humans, we will need new (policy) tools to ensure we are dealing with a real person. Here an interesting proposal: www.technologyreview.com/2024/09/02/1...
Are you a doomer now, Giles?
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IPPR will once again be delivering a diverse programme of events at four party conferences in 2024. We anticipate that just as in previous years, our event
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