New paper on something near to my science heart – and still a bit of a blind spot in society: *Including internal climate variability in risk assessment* We use the CESM2 Large Ensemble to stress-test renewable energy in the Western U.S. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... 🧵 1/9
We identify a decarbonization pathway for the power system that is robust to future climate realizations Our framework is extensible to long-term planning by utilities, regions, and regulators L...
We took a capacity expansion model that is trying to decarbonize the electricity sector over the coming decades (it expands solar/wind/hydro and reduces fossil fuels) and subjected it to different climate trajectories from the 100-member CESM2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). 2/9
This is nice work, congrats! We often see effects like this in optimal control of sustems with stochastic disturbances. There's actually theory that relates the number of IID planning scenarios to the probability of satisfying constraints under unseen scenarios sampled from the same distribution.