So the underlying issue is that the GOP has decided to wage war against the trans community, so people are (understandably) incredibly anxious and, like any persecuted group, on high alert about possible signals of abandonment by Dems?

correct!

I would add to this: I think it’s a fair assessment of this campaign that their messaging on trans rights has been really…apathetic, in a way that does not inspire confidence in a lot of people. If they have commitments to trans rights they’re doing a poor job of signaling them