While these values are not trivial, and certainly contributed to record warmth in 2023, its hard to explain more than 0.1C of the global mean temperature increase experienced to-date from the WMO regulations across the range of transient climate responses found in CMIP6 models.

The phaseout of sulfur in marine fuels in 2020 remains a part of the explanation for the weirdness we experienced in the latter half of last year, but far from the full one. For more, check our our new post over at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/a-problema...

A problematic estimate of warming from low-sulfur marine fuels

A new paper provides a reasonable forcing estimate but errs on the global temperature response