The difference between these two approaches is stark, changing from an increase in the federal budget deficit by $4 billion under the conventional approach, to a net decrease in the federal budget deficit of $129 billion under the population-change approach, from 2025 to 2034.

Over the following decade, the difference is even larger – changing from a $74 billion increase in the federal budget deficit under the conventional approach to a $634 billion decrease under the population-change approach.