Ah, fair enough, I sort of skimmed that clause to be honest! No COVID or Ukraine? Then yes, I think Johnson's boosterism and Levelling Up might have been enough to hang together a 'we're turning the corner after the Brexit negotiations' narrative and get them over the line.

I still think the sensible money though is on the Johnson administration unravelling after one scandal or another - probably Labour sneaking in as a minority government/possibly 2015-level majority.