my basic view on the election right now is that Trump is losing but that does not mean he has lost. he can still catch up! but there’s no denying they are behind and critically the campaign knows it.

If he really is behind—and I’m not at all sure about that (MI and WI polling is worrisome and GA is unobtainable for Harris d/t electoral board corruption)—I don’t see a way for him to catch up, he’s already at his ceiling I think and is making no effort to go beyond his base.

The Trump Campaign’s “strategy” seems rather…haphazard, to say the least

I asked this suspiciously well-connected but completely ordinary fellow in a diner who disagrees

Totally un-scientific, yes, but Michael Moore (he was right in 2016, 2020) says Kamala will win. I am still writing postcards like a mad woman but I find comfort in that. He’s also very plugged in to Michigan.

What makes you think the campaign knows it? Seems like they believe he’s winning.

I hope so. But … Trump overperformed his polls in 2016 and 2020, by an average of 3 points in swing states and 5 points in Wisconsin. Black voters in WI have been abandoning voting in growing numbers since 2016. If MAGA’s past votig patterns recur, Trump is on track to crush Harris nationwide.

IMO they’re concentrated on extra-electoral methods

I hope you're right, but this isn't what I see at all. The polls are too close and they seem like they're going in the wrong direction.

A part of me deep down, that I’m actively working to suppress, thinks that he’s headed towards electoral annihilation. Hopium is a helluva drug and I’m trying not to become addicted.

Lucky for him he still has the debate to try to win some people over. Oh wait ...