it’s not that i think any of these people have enough sense to buy a gumdrop but even i’m a little surprised by the folks who are treating odds in a prediction market as tantamount to results in an election

“The opinions of a group comprised almost entirely of men will tell us what we need to know about the first post Dobbs election!”

I figured (and betting markets accuracy assumes) people will hesitate to let their prejudices influence bets when *their* money is on the line. Then Elon Musk bought Twitter. Apparently prejudices outweigh common sense to the tune of $25b dollars and counting.

A lot of folk should pre register their priors, even if only to themselves, for how to think about the last 6 months, depending on whether the popular vote winds up being Trump+1, Harris +1, Harris +5, Harris +8, or something more extreme (either way)

They'll never have the votes so they have to change the metric to how much money is spent because that's the only thing they value.

The French guy who bet 25m+ on trump needs his assets seized

Going to keep posting this, but if you go out and buy $20 million of DJT (Truth Social) and $20 million of Polymarket crypto bet Trump futures, and DJT goes up to $60 million, bc it moves in tandem with Trump on Poly - you just made $20 million (illegally) if you exit DJT even if Trump loses

I think there’s an argument for betting against your preferred election outcome as a sort of hedge – even if something horrible happens to your country, at least you get a windfall out of it that you can spend on trying to cope

I think there is a certain contingent of Very Online Dude who believes everything can be predicted by a computer. A symptom of being terrified of being wrong, but too lazy to actually study anything. So they cling to the idea that Daddy Internet would never lie to them. Also gambling addicts.

But, Elon said it’s more accurate cuz money. And, he builds rockets n stuff. So, he’s super smart and must be right.

Mark economy