Monthly sales are noisy. Even quarter to quarter can be. There's a lot of over-reporting on these short-term trends in EV sales. If we zoom out, do we really see electric vehicle sales slowing? Total sales dont seem to be slowing (1st derivative of trend is +). # 1 of 2 🔌💡 🔌🚗

But, but, "The Narrative"!! So much fun living in a world where news organizations feel they have the right and mandate to create the reality they desire.

Is EV sales GROWTH slowing? Maybe. If I fit a 2nd-order polynomial, the 2nd derivative is negative. But a linear fit still performs nearly as well. The upshot: patience folks! Don't over-report the short-term. This is a momentous industry transition in action. Buckle up and ride the rollercoaster...

Note that Wards Intelligence (source for Argonne’s data, and also what we purchase at EIA) modifies their monthly estimates up to 1 year after publication — Tesla being adjusted most. 12/23 total EV [PHEV + BEV] sales and market share were actually higher than current 8/24 estimates by a smidge.

It would be nice (and surely not that hard) to get monthly transport sector emissions data like this

It looks to me part of the issue is an increase in the sales rate in early 2023, then a drop below trend that looked like an implosion. Now it is going back to trend.