Just as reference: At this stage in 2012, Obama/Romney a cliff-hanger. In Nov, Obama won by 5 million votes, 4% margin, 332-206 EV. At this stage in 1992, Ross Perot was runway leader over Bill Clinton and GHW Bush. See NYT story June 11 1992 below. At this stage in 2004, Kerry in lead over GWB

The voters hadn’t yet learned of Romney’s binders full of women.

Wow I did not know there was a point where Perot was actually leading. I thought at best he had like 20% of the vote.

“If the election were held today…” well, it ain’t

A lot can happen in 4 months.

I think Dukakis was up 15 on GW Bush pre-conventions and pre-tank ride

Proportion of sway-able voters much less given the present level of polarization + candidate familiarity.

Unfortunately, this seems way less reassuring after last night's debate.