So, some promising news about the midyear MCCA data (which produced these results). Every year that the MCCA has provided midyear data (since 2019), the aggregate MY and Yearend data have moved in sync. The levels differ initially, due to the timing of the 2020 spike and decline. But trends match.

So what, you're telling me that MIGRANT CRIME isn't being counted?? (you have to use all caps to make sure people know you're nuts)

A bit more. Here are trends for how midyear and year-end data tracked at the city level (for the 54 cities in the MCCA data that have MY and YE data for 2019-2024). In 2024, ~70% of cities saw MY declines. Based on trends in 2021-2023, we should expect ~67% to ~78% to see YE declines as well.