Given uncertainty in future technology costs, we cannot predict with confidence what technology mix will be in a least-cost zero-emission electricity system. This suggests a portfolio approach to cost-reduction, and iterative decision-making with learning. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Plans for decarbonized electricity systems rely on projections of highly uncertain future technology costs. We use a stylized model to investigate the…
Also, if we're risk averse about reducing emissions (as we should be) we should probably have a preference for near-term deployment of well-characterized, commercially mature techs to move us as far as they can, and minimize putting all our decarbonization bets on yet-to-be-commercialized tech.
Our earlier work demonstrates that a broad range of technologies is potentially available to firm up wind-and-solar-reliant electricity systems, While it is impossible to predict which will be least-cost, there are many options which may be sufficiently low cost. findingspress.org/article/9039...