The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment measure, which currently sits in the high 60s, is about 13 points lower than one would predict based on economic fundamentals like the unemployment rate, inflation, stock market returns, and consumption.

Democrats and Republicans view the economy very differently. Shifts in sentiment by party over time suggest that at least some of those differences are related to partisan control of the White House, with GOP sentiment about 2.5x more responsive to this than Dem sentiment.