An abrupt halt to 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 would cause Germany's economy to shrink by 5% in the short run, comparable to the slum following the financial or COVID crisis. In the longer term, the loss will stabilize at around 1.5% annually. Gradual reduction would avoid the high initial costs. This is...1/2

Cost of decoupling from China for German economy severe but not devastating

An abrupt halt to trade with China would cause Germany's economy to shrink by 5 percent in the short run. The slump is comparable to that following the financial crisis or the COVID crisis. This is th...

… result of a simulation study led by the Kiel Institute. @baqaee.bsky.social@schularick.bsky.social@julianhi.nz@benmoll.bsky.social@feodorateti.bsky.social@joschkawanner.bsky.social 2/2