When I voted in Texas in 2020 the ballot was 6 pages long, I think

How do they keep up with the news like that?!

If he’s manipulating the model to give more weight to fraudulent republican polls for the purpose of tilting the forecast for trump, why does he publish the weights and not do it behind the scenes and claim it’s fundamentals or demographics or something that’s more of a black box

Where and how much

I could be wrong about this, but I believe the pollster rating method went with Silver when he left 538. It’s*possible* he’s manipulating the outputs, but patriot polling or whatever claims to use landlines, while yougov is online and he’s always given more weight to landline polls

That poll is basically in line with the others and wouldn't affect the average very much

Furthermore, I really struggle to believe Nate Silver’s model influences turnout in any meaningful way. His recognition outside the pundit/online community is not very high and if anything a 50/50 race seems like it would boost turnout, not depress it

I don’t think there’s any reason to think Silver is putting his thumb on the scale. His explanations for how various factors (conventions, state vs national polls, etc) affect the outputs are consistent with what he said about his model when he ran 538

Wow, I knew he’d fallen off awhile ago, but I didn't realize it’d been so long

This is so dumb in so many ways, but the idea that before slavery was “invented” there was no option but to kill everyone is so stupid I don’t even know where to begin