The oddest US-Taiwan comparison of 2024… Chen Shui-bian’s assassination attempt was the literal day before the election, and he ended up winning by less than 1%. It led to years of conspiracy & election denial because of its timing/perceptions of Chen staging the attempt.*
人生大事！下個學期我將擔任國立台灣大學國家發展研究所的助理教授，一樣教授政治學，只是在一個新的家!
Big news! I’ve accepted a new tenure track position at National Taiwan University! I’ll still be teaching political science, just now at my new home in the Graduate Institute for National Development (國發所)!
6. Tl;dr: The protests are not about the DPP. They're about various grievances toward the KMT/TPP. We'll know how exactly these protests have changed party support in a few months when new surveys are done. Until then, focus attention on just how far these new laws are taken...
5. "What does this mean for the DPP/TPP/KMT's electoral future?" The annoying answer: its too soon to tell! Its two years before the next (local) elections. But, do pay attention to how many recall campaigns are mobilized over the next two years 👀: x.com/brianhioe/st...
It is hardly my job to decide whose frame is right or wrong, I only care that people recognize the diversity in thought here! I've been arguing that activists in Taiwan have far more varied views of the DPP for years: online.ucpress.edu/as/article-a...
Why would opposition movement activists not support an established opposition political party? Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election is apropos. This study shows that the Democratic Progressive Party lo...
4A. This difference in China frames is meaningful. Critiques of the DPP argue they overstate how much the current crisis is directly about China, rather than an indrectly weakining of Taiwan's democracy that ignores how the problem is home-grown, not external.
4. One key difference is how China is framed. For the DPP, the new laws are a direct existential threat from China. For the protests, the laws are a threat against Taiwan's democracy, and may make it easier for China to coopt Taiwan through bad actors in the KMT/TPP.
3. Motivation for participating and the demographic background of participants varies widely. Way more than I anticipated. Its hardly a stduent movement, its a civil society movement. I know lots of gropus are conducting surveys of participants, but here's some initial findings:
