Kamala Harris will win the national popular vote on November 5th, absent an extraordinary upending event. Here’s how we know. In the MAGA Era (post-2016), the best predictor of how—and whether—someone will vote in the future is how—and whether—they have voted in the past.

I think it's beyond a reasonable doubt that she's going to win the popular vote. It's the Electoral College that's the problem.

Today, there are about 91 million Americans who have voted for Biden and House Democrats since 2016, and about 83 million who have voted for Trump or House Republicans.

Pollsters have consistently underestimated Democratic support since Dobbs, and after their 2022 miss they didn't correct their models for subsequent special elections. And they may have overcorrected for their 2020 Trump miss, because he consistently underperformed in the primaries.