Rupar also uses the term "swing voters" which I think needs to be defined. Because the number of people trying to choose between Trump and Harris is smaller than the number of people trying to decide between staying home and voting for the same party they voted for in 2020. Turnout is the real swing

Fair point about the importance of turnout, do you have data for this? Because I think Dodd drives many Republican women and even disaffected Dems to vote for Harris.

These are not serious people or white people who won’t be affected by a Trump presidency and are just being selfish.

I don't know if there are already hard numbers, but at least it feels like Trump depressed more voters or turned them of by his advance to authoritarian style. Overall turnout should be same or lower than 2020, but 2022 looked like Democrats would have an edge in 2024.

Absolutely, if you you give a shit about either cheney's opinion on anything you are not going to suddenly see the light of god and swap trump to harris, you're demoralized about the election

I think this is also why the "weird" campaign that Harris debuted with was so effective. It energized her base and made the Trump cult feel alienated and depressed, which helps push down turnout for his side.