A week ago, US election modelers were all over the place: Harris' chances given from a low of 40% (Silver) to a high of 61% (FiveThirtyEight). Today they are within 2 percentage points: 52.9% (DataDiary) to 55.0% (DDHQ). Live updates and reviews here. paulmainwood.substack.com/p/the-us-ele...

Somewhat paradoxically, this increased agreement has come due to the situation becoming more uncertain. State vs national, high vs low-quality polling, pointing in different directions. Each model absorbing more and more volatile evidence, until they eventually converge near the full 50:50 toss-up.