I think the big issue is overestimating the value of carving off marginal Haley voters at the expense of losing base enthusiasm when that's useful for turnout or "hey we need people to write postcards"

And it sends the message that they take their base for granted, that they always roll out the red carpet for these disaffected Republican voters. Granted, this year they have ever so slightly more data to suggest that could be a thing but it's unclear if the gains offset the losses from doing so.