Not in the sense of a risk neutral probability being something that you can construct a replicating portfolio to hedge (eg, an option price). It’s just a market clearing price, in the same way that GameStop stock is also a market clearing price.
It’s just DJT lol, way better r/r than Polymarket if you do the right options structure
New Substack post up, for your Friday reading and enjoyment, about the market structure flaws inherent to political betting markets: quantian.substack.com/p/market-pri...
And no, they aren't valuations either
>open Bluesky >see skeet to the effect of “JD Vance won’t see your tweets calling him a couchfucker but your friends into kink will :/” >close Bluesky and go back to Twitter
I’m here to undermine the will of Democratic primary voters and chew bubble gum, and I’m all out of gum.
Still no DMs here, huh? It’s so joever
Abortion ban numbers are insane too, given that you have to assume the non-Trump voters are 90%+ no on that too.
Yeah I was reasonably morally conflicted about what choice to make (because I wasn’t playing a soulless corpo V this time) right up until you learn that and then it’s like nah you know what, you’re going to Turbo Cyberprison forever now I want the mcguffin
I actually really liked the fact that the original three endings were all pretty bittersweet with serious negative consequences. Then Phantom Liberty ruined it, smdh.