New post on evaluating forecasting mechanisms prior to event realization: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

A Forecasting Competition

We have just six weeks to go before election day.

Would this work with a risk neutral trader?

I've updated the post with a figure showing the evolution of the Silver Bulletin portfolio on PredictIt, a link to a follow-up by Andrew Gelman, and a response to a comment open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

A Forecasting Competition

We have just six weeks to go before election day.