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Cockerhoop
@ranmoorruffian.bsky.social
UK Based Full Time Small Cap Investor Relatively concentrated Top 10 circa 85% GDWN, MSI, GAW, SYS1, ANP, ULTP, MACF, CRL, JNEO, ASY I'm also a keen cyclist, sports fan and 'indie' music lover.
93 followers20 following23 posts
Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

Particularly enjoyed the outlook for the next 2-3 years. Should be a sustained royalty stream for #GAW.L

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

The vibe from the #MSI.L Agm was that land based systems have the potential to outsell the naval systems over time. Lots of competing systems in the market place though.

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

It's massively in demand, #MSI.L has land based systems operational in Ukraine and the Middle East. Israel though would look to Rafael for their C-UAS systems.

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

And in the short term we have the likelihood of FY25 Defence sales running ahead of FY24 results with a sprinkling of operational gearing thrown in (barring any project delivery delays on their lumpy contracts).

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

#MSI.L I don't think it's any secret that we're in the end game here just the timescale that is uncertain. Also clear the Exec's wish to time the exit to maximise the value of their life work. That may require the US Naval follow on to be in the bag along with the further development of Paladin.

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

Whilst you can never be certain with the exact revenue recognition of large lumpy defence deliveries my modelling of contract timelines suggest FY25 will be a step up in Defence sales. The CGT & AIM IHT nervousness is doing small caps no favours currently. #MSI.L

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

4 new radiographic facilities (funded by the end customer) suggest a significant ramp up (200%??) in high integrity work at GSC and underlines the longevity of that partnership. #GDWN.L

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

I think they made the correct decision to attempt to transition to software (training devices was always a really tough business) but I do worry they'll run out of financial runway before the new software suite is cash generative #PEN.L

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

Looks really knife edge to me on viability. The AR has extensive GC modelling and I think they're in a Test 3 situation. I presume the properties to be sold are collateral for the HSBC overdraft so won't necessarily flow back into the business. Suspect training systems effectively being shuttered.

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Cranmoorruffian.bsky.social

Held 10 of those over the years and still contains my current Top 3 😍

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C
Cockerhoop
@ranmoorruffian.bsky.social
UK Based Full Time Small Cap Investor Relatively concentrated Top 10 circa 85% GDWN, MSI, GAW, SYS1, ANP, ULTP, MACF, CRL, JNEO, ASY I'm also a keen cyclist, sports fan and 'indie' music lover.
93 followers20 following23 posts