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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
Policy Director at the American Immigration Council. Commenting generally on immigration law and policy. Retweets =/= endorsements, views are my own.
2.1k followers289 following1.3k posts
ARreichlinmelnick.bsky.social

Mass deportation is not housing policy. It will hurt everyone. If you think it's hard to build a home or get a contractor now, wait until 1/3 of the nation's roofers, ceiling tilers, stucco masons, plasterers and drywall installers get deported. It won't be pretty. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Our analysis finds that 1 in 7 people employed in the construction industry as of 2022 were undocumented, accounting for more than 1.5 million workers. Within many of the trades relevant to housing construction and maintenance, the proportion is higher. We estimate that more than 1 in 3 roofers, ceiling tilers, stucco masons, plasterers and drywall installers are undocumented. These workers not only build many of the roughly 1.79 million new units that go onto the market each year, they also maintain and repair existing housing stock. If you think getting a contractor is hard now, wait until the workforce has been cut by a third.
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PHpyritohedron.bsky.social

In my area there is no way the roofer workforce is only 1/3 immigrants. The proportion is if anything flipped.

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SApublichealth.bsky.social

not to mention all the repairs and upgrades related to climate change…

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ARreichlinmelnick.bsky.social

There is little direct evidence that migrant arrivals are linked to changing rent prices. National data shows that median rents peaked in August 2022 and then plateaued or fell slightly after that. That's not what happened with migration, which accelerated in 2023. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Most undocumented immigrants are renters, and there too, the evidence does not show migrant arrivals have driven up rent prices. According to Apartment List, median rent began spiking in January 2021, peaked in August 2022, and began slowly falling after that. That trend does not align with migration. Our analysis of Department of Homeland Security data shows roughly 1.5 million migrants entered the country during the period when rents were spiking. But from August 2022 through May 2024, an additional 3.6 million migrants entered the country. In short, migration rose dramatically even as rent prices plateaued and fell. This strongly suggests that migration across the border is not directly correlated to rent prices.
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AR
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
Policy Director at the American Immigration Council. Commenting generally on immigration law and policy. Retweets =/= endorsements, views are my own.
2.1k followers289 following1.3k posts
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