This is an awesome addition to bsky. Of course, don’t use it as your only source of weather warning information, but it is great to have as another info source in the quiver!
Kathmandu valley receives half the annual average rainfall in 2 days. More than 700mm (over 27 inches) of rain in less than 30 hours! nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead...
yep, Agnes is discussed in the paper as one of the first PREs to be thoroughly studied!
plenty of caveats as always about the details of these calculations, as summarized in @cristiproist.bsky.socialbsky.app/profile/cris... For one thing, return period estimates in the SE haven't been updated to include recent storms, so the real "1000-year" value is likely much higher
It allows for some semi-objective comparisons between events. From this perspective, Helene rainfall was not quite as extreme as the 2015 S. Carolina storm or Florence (2018), but a big difference is the heaviest rain fell in the complex terrain, so the flood response was different (and worse). 2/
we have this site that compares observed rainfall to average recurrence intervals from NOAA Atlas 14. Over the last 72 hrs, most of western NC exceeded the 0.1% probability (aka "1000-year rainfall") for that duration. 1/ schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/precip_monit...
This is the current "road emergency" situation in Western NC.This is the current "road emergency" situation in Western NC.
with quotes from famous hurricane scientists and a mention of our research on predecessor rain events (PREs) from ~15 yrs ago 🎁 wapo.st/4gTebmi
Will September be a test of what’s to come for hurricane season with a record-hot ocean and more storms lining up in the Atlantic?
Following back up on this, that rainfall record at Asheville was indeed topped by over 5". Several CoCoRaHS observers with over 20" of rain in the higher terrain. Awful.
