This is what happened with the hurricane in San Diego area. Hilary changed it's position as it came up north (literally circled around us) and we didn't get hit as hard as expected. But I would rather be prepared and let down instead of being unprepared in a bad situation.

They actually underestimated rainfall while max winds weren’t quite as high as the very final NWS San Diego forecast but they also had multiple wind forecasts the morning of the storm with a more accurate wind forecast. Problem was, it didn’t track west enough and the mountains killed the winds.