According to 538, out of every possible election result, the most likely scenario is Trump winning 316-222. Happens 4.8% of the time.

Baloney. This race is shaping up the same way it did in 2020, the first time Trump was fired with massive early voting. Trump is being FIRED. Again. Of, course, it doesn't mean he won't try to steal the election again. Or RepubliCons either.