Overall July trade data unwinds goods export growth seen in June, leaving UK trade following its post-Brexit pattern: broad-based weak goods trade but relatively resilient services trade.

And worryingly this goods weakness continues to be pretty widespread across sectors – with both high value-added machinery and transport and chemicals sectors exports falling to both the EU and non-EU.

Revisiting last month’s quarterly trade data though, the UK’s weak goods export performance continues to stand out: the gap between the UK and the rest of the G7 continues to widen, leaving the UK the only G7 country with goods export volumes still below Q4-2018 levels.

This year that leaves UK trade values looking substantially weaker than Canada and the US, but stronger than Germany which has also struggled to reinvigorate its goods exports.

Comparing the year to date with last year we see goods trade volumes remain down, led by weaker goods exports to the EU (which fell 5.4%). Meanwhile, services trade volumes continue to show reasonable growth on last year.

But this reversal of the goods export growth in June and lackluster output performance is disappointing, given PMIs suggest that UK manufacturing has turned a corner – so far this doesn’t seem to be appearing in the data. x.com/JamesSmithRF...

This aligns with what we are seeing in monthly GDP, with services sectors growth outweighing larger falls in production output.

Monthly trade dominated by very weak goods export volumes in July, to both EU and non-EU partners. Goods exports down 11.5% in July, reversing substantial growth seen last month (+11% in June). Services trade continues to grow, partially offsetting weaker goods trade.