SW
Stephen Wild
@stephenjwild.bsky.social
I try to put straight lines through things but usually fail. Try to be Bayesian when I can. Views my own. RT/like != endorsement.
957 followers492 following1k posts
A short while ago I would have said, "Probably." Now, maybe not.
I don't think they're explicitly thinking in terms of RMSE. But they all know that the polls were off by 4 points on average in 2020 and 4 is a lot larger than 1. So when describing a 1 point lead in a polling average, probably wouldn't describe it as one candidate being ahead.
SW
Stephen Wild
@stephenjwild.bsky.social
I try to put straight lines through things but usually fail. Try to be Bayesian when I can. Views my own. RT/like != endorsement.
957 followers492 following1k posts