A big part of Trump's success came from very clearly not disavowing #3: they finally recognized that they were a plurality of the party and felt empowered to speak up. And the other two groups discovered that they were helpless to exert control once their pet monster decided to run the show.

I thought at the time that if Trump lost, the coalition would fragment: nobody would want anything to do with #3, but the others wouldn't be a nationally viable party without them. Complicated! But once Trump won, groups #1 and #2 fully submitted to the reality that without MAGA they have nothing.