aren’t we realistically already past 1.5°? 🤦‍♂️ permafrost melting, huge methane craters, ocean temperatures. the feed forward loops are already noticeable.

There are still uncertainties but probably less than 5 years of current emissions before carbon budget for 50:50 chance of limiting to 1.5°C is gone. Permafrost & methane tipping will probably need higher temps. Greenland may be going but will take v long time. report-2023.global-tipping-points.org

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Report 2023 Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26...