As we explain, “decisions and actions in times of ecological crisis must be taken, but given the situation of true uncertainty, they must be taken through the exercise of judgement, as well as with ‘prudence and humility’ (Knight, 1921: 375).” 9/9
We suggest that this report combined with the work of the NGFS possibly marks a turning point in taking decisions and actions in times of crisis out of uncertainty, rather than measurable risk. 8/9
3) Finally, new developments in green central banking, particularly the “Green Swan” report by BIS are illustrations of Knight’s exercise of judgment in acknowledging the true uncertainty of future states of the world. 7/9
2) Recent financial sustainability reporting standards of the IFRS Foundation bring the ecological crisis into the realm of Knightian statistical probabilities. 6/9
1) The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting of the UN which provides biophysical statistics for environmental dimensions of economic activities is close to what Knight calls “estimates of probability”. 5/9
We illustrate our argument with the global ecological crisis and its uncertainty. We present 3 contrasting methods used by international actors to convert the time of the ecological crisis into decisions and actions. 4/9
We draw on Frank Knight 3 methods to reduce uncertainty based on distinct probabilistic calculus to anticipate future states of the world. While devised to explain the origins of profits in a capitalist economy, the methods can also inform IR conceptualization of crises. 3/9
We consider crises as critical moments when international actors must act while facing the problem of uncertainty & we show that IR studies struggle to sort out the processes underpinning decisions and actions taken in such crisis moments. 2/9
Fantastic to see this out! In our O/A article with @jcgraz.bsky.social@ejir.bsky.social, we draw on Frank Knight’s analysis to explain how international actors claim reliable knowledge for shaping future states of the world in times of crisis. A short 🧵 1/9
12/ As the article concludes: “we hope that professors and researchers elsewhere can build upon Atlantic Diagonals to eventually produce and diffuse new, pluralist, and decentred knowledge beyond the anglosphere and spark interest in further collaborative teaching avenues.”